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Players tracked automatically in live games. Signal fires when scoring falls below 65% of expected pace. Tracks Q1 and halftime pace separately.
| Player | Team | PPG | Q1 Exp | Half Exp | Signal (<65%) |
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| Player | Game | Pts | Q1 Pace | Half Pace | Overall % | Period | Signal |
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| Star stats populate when live games are running. | |||||||
Auto-logged when signals fire. Results auto-resolved from ESPN final scores.
Kelly criterion-based bet sizing. Conservative by default -- capped at 5% max per bet.
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Auto-logs every signal fired during live games. Results resolved from ESPN final scores.
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Replay past games through the signal detection engine. Validates strategy against historical ESPN data with $200 flat bets at -110.
Auto-tracks every signalLevel=2 recommendation. Results resolved from ESPN final scores. Kelly-sized bets on $20K bankroll with estimated 5-12% edge.
The idea is simple: Sportsbooks under-adjust live spreads when a team builds a big lead. When the pre-game favorite leads by 11+, they cover the live spread 72-83% of the time. When the pre-game underdog is winning, the book still thinks they'll lose — and they don't. We catch both.
How to use it:
| Signal | In Plain English | What to Bet |
|---|---|---|
| FAV | Pre-game favorite leads by 11+ points at 14+ min. Books under-adjust: live spreads shift only ~1pt per 10pts of lead. 72-83% cover rate. FAV SIMPLE: 72.2% cover, +37.8% ROI, N=1,336. FAV TIER 1: Lead Safety ≥3 + Spread Rel ≥10 → 82.9% cover, +58.3% ROI, N=544. |
Bet the favorite's live spread. The lead is real and the book hasn't adjusted enough. |
| DOG | Pre-game underdog is winning at 14+ min. The market had them losing — they're proving it wrong. 63-72% cover rate. Tier hierarchy: STRONG (72.5% cover, 38.4% ROI) > MEDIUM FAV (70.0%, 33.6% — pre-game spread 3.5-7 pts) > PHYSICAL (67.2%, 28.3%) > LEADING (66.6%, 27.2%). |
If dog ML ≥ -100: BET ML. If dog ML < -100: BET SPREAD. |
| STAR COIL | A star player (21+ PPG) is cold (<65% pace) AND the game is close (within 15pts) in Q2-Q3. Supplemental signal — confirms FAV/DOG when it aligns. | Supplemental only. Use to confirm FAV/DOG signals, not as standalone bet trigger. |
| QUALITY | Stronger team (by season win%) trailing 1-10 pts in Q1-Q2. Win% gap must be ≥ 15%. Est. 3.5% edge. Market overreacts to early deficits against superior teams. Quality gap + early game = regression opportunity. |
If trailing ≤ 5pts: BET ML. If trailing 6-10pts: BET SPREAD. |
Core thesis: Books under-adjust live spreads for in-game leads. When a team leads by 10+, they cover the live spread ~70% of the time. We exploit this systematically.
Pre-game favorite dominating — validated 72-83% cover rate
FAV SIMPLE: Fav leads by 11+ points, 14+ min elapsed (Q2+). 72.2% cover, +37.8% ROI, N=1,336, Z=16.20.
FAV TIER 1: Lead Safety ≥ 3 AND Spread Relative ≥ 10. 82.9% cover, +58.3% ROI, N=544, Z=15.35.
Why it works: Books adjust live spreads only ~1 point per 10 points of in-game lead. This is massively insufficient. 5/5 seasons profitable, 100% of rolling 200-game windows profitable.
Pre-game underdog leading — 63-72% cover rate with hybrid ML/spread
DOG LEADING: Pre-game dog ahead at 14+ min. 66.6% cover, 27.2% ROI.
DOG MEDIUM FAV: Pre-game spread 3.5-7 pts. 70.0% cover, 33.6% ROI.
DOG PHYSICAL: + dog wins rebound battle. 67.2% cover, 28.3% ROI.
DOG STRONG: + dog leads 5+ AND wins REB AND wins FTA. 72.5% cover, 38.4% ROI.
Hybrid ML/SPREAD: If dog ML ≥ -100 → BET ML (+30.7% ROI). If dog ML < -100 → BET SPREAD.
Strong team trailing early — market overreacts to early deficits
When a team with significantly higher win% (15%+ gap) falls behind early, the market overvalues the deficit. Superior teams regress toward their true strength as the game progresses.
Key conditions: Q1-Q2 only, trailing by 1-10 points, season win% gap ≥ 15%, estimated live spread still favors the stronger team.
Bet sizing: Half-Kelly with urgency multiplier. ML if trailing ≤ 5pts, SPREAD if trailing 6-10pts.
Estimated edge: ~3.5% over market.
Two validated edges: (1) FAV — when the pre-game favorite builds a big lead, the live spread doesn't adjust enough. (2) DOG — when the pre-game underdog is winning, the book still prices them to lose. Both are validated against REAL live odds across 3,550 games and 7 seasons.
The edge: Books adjust live spreads only ~1 point per 10 points of in-game lead. When the favorite leads by 11+, the spread hasn't caught up — they cover 72% of the time at minimum.
Lead Safety = lead / sqrt(time remaining). Higher = more secure lead.
Spread Relative = current lead - |pre-game spread|. How far beyond expectations.
FAV SIMPLE: 72.2% cover | +37.8% ROI | 1,336 bets | Z=16.20 | Max loss streak: 6
FAV TIER 1: 82.9% cover | +58.3% ROI | 544 bets | Z=15.35 | 5/5 seasons profitable
The edge: When the pre-game underdog is winning after Q1, the book still prices them to lose. The dog's lead is real — especially when backed by rebounding and free throw dominance (physicality > shooting).
DOG LEADING: 63.4% cover | N=1,955
DOG PHYSICAL: 65.5% cover | Dog wins rebound battle
DOG STRONG: 70.6% cover | Lead 5+ AND REB AND FTA dominance
Hybrid: ML when dog ML ≥ -100 (+30.7% ROI) | Spread when < -100
Star Coil detects when a star player is cold (<65% pace) in a competitive game. It's kept as a supplemental signal that confirms FAV/DOG when it aligns — not a standalone bet trigger.
Scores from ESPN live API. Odds from The Odds API (DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM). Pre-game spreads identify favorites. All signals validated against real historical live odds.
Important: No signal guarantees an outcome. These are probabilistic edges. Use flat 3% bankroll sizing.